The evidence that shows Rwanda is backing rebels in DR Congo

Protesters in Kinshasa, the capital of Democratic Republic of Congo, have been burning portraits of Rwanda’s president and tearing up Rwandan flags as M23 rebels have taken control of most the eastern city of Goma.

Their fury is focused on Rwandan President Paul Kagame, who they accuse of backing the rebels – an accusation long made by the UN.

To put it bluntly, a group of UN experts maintains the Rwandan army is in “de facto control of M23 operations”, detailing how M23 recruits are trained under Rwandan supervision and supported by high-tech Rwandan weaponry.

Goma, which lies at the foot of a volcano near Lake Kivu, sits on the border with Rwanda. It is the capital of mineral-rich North Kivu province – and is an important trading and humanitarian hub and the base for the UN’s largest peacekeeping mission.

The city had also become a refuge for those fleeing the conflict between M23 fighters and the army that erupted again in late 2021 – with the population swelling to around two million.

They all face further turmoil as fighting erupted there on Sunday night with loud explosions echoing through the streets, which are now strewn with bodies. The exact circumstances of what is going on is unclear as phone lines are down and electricity and water supplies have been cut off. But the M23 seem to have captured most, if not all, of the city.

“There was no question that there are Rwandan troops in Goma supporting the M23,” said UN peacekeeping chief Jean-Pierre Lacroix, though he added that it was it was difficult to tell the exact numbers on the ground in Goma.

Tellingly some Congolese army soldiers in Goma who surrendered on Monday, did so by crossing over the border into Rwanda.

Since the conflict begun, President Kagame has repeatedly denied any involvement in supporting the M23 rebels, who are well equipped, well armed and well trained.

However, this response has noticeably shifted as accusations continue to grow with “overwhelming evidence” showing Rwanda’s support for the rebel group, according to Richard Moncrief, International Crisis Group’s project director for the Great Lakes

“The tone has changed to justification for defensive measures,” he told the BBC. “It has become harder to deny Rwanda’s support for M23.”

On Sunday, Rwanda’s foreign ministry said in a statement: “This fighting close to the Rwandan border continues to present a serious threat to Rwanda’s security and territorial integrity, and necessitates Rwanda’s sustained defensive posture.”

It said it was concerned by “misguided or manipulative” statements that lacked context about the conflict.

For Kagame, the context all comes down to the Rwandan genocide that took place over 100 days in 1994.

The ethnic Hutu militia involved in killing up to 800,000 people – the vast majority from the Tutsi community – fled to what is now DR Congo, some forming the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR).

This rebel group is still active in the notoriously unstable eastern DR Congo – and still includes some of those responsible for the genocide.

Kagame, who headed the rebel Tutsi force that ended the killing more than three decades ago, sees this “genocidal militia” as an existential threat.

His government has twice invaded DR Congo, saying it wants to stop Hutu rebel groups from staging cross-border attacks.

Earlier this month he called out his Congolese counterpart, Félix Tshisekedi, for failing to deal with the FDLR and talk to the M23, saying this was exacerbating the conflict.

Mr Moncrief believes that the targeting of Goma is more about making a political point as he says the M23 does not need the city strategically as it already “controls many more lucrative areas”.

“It is President Kagame’s way of exerting power over who is in charge of North Kivu,” said the Great Lakes expert.

Rwanda accused the military governor of North Kivu, who was killed in fighting last week, of collaborating with the FDLR.

The discovery of this kind of high-level collaboration, experts agree, would have been like a red flag to a bull for Rwanda.

The M23’s origins are tied to these tensions – it is the latest incarnation of a rebel group that says it is fighting for the interests of the minority Tutsi community in eastern DR Congo.

Its first uprising more than a decade ago ended with a peace deal – when its fighters disarmed and mainly moved into camps in Uganda.

But three years ago, they began leaving the camps saying the deal was not honoured and within a couple months was seizing territory.

The UN peacekeeping mission – first deployed in 1999 – is not mandated to go on the offensive. Two regional forces – an East African one followed by a southern African one – specially deployed over the last few years at the request of Tshisekedi have failed to contain the M23.

This gives an indication of the M23’s sophisticated operations.

According to the UN group of experts, this includes five months of training at the M23’s main base in Tchanzu, hilly terrain not far from Rwanda’s border, that incorporates courses on theory and ideology and then practical elements including “war tactics”, “engagement rules” and “bush tactics”.

It said Rwandan officers were often at the camp, where recruits, including children, were brought – some joining up on a voluntary basis, others forced to do so in a systematic operation where local chiefs had to provide conscripts.

The experts said Sultani Makenga, who once fought for Kagame in the early 1990s in Rwanda and is now the M23’s military chief, attended some of the passing-out ceremonies between 25 September and 31 October 2024 that involved 3,000 recruits.

Rwanda’s spokesperson Yolande Makolo did not address the question of whether Rwandan officers were in the M23 camp but she did deny the charges about child soldiers, telling the BBC last year: “The claim about recruiting minors in camps is absurd, it’s blatant information warfare against Rwanda.”

However UN expert reports detail how the M23’s strength has grown since May when numbers were put at around 3,000.

The experts estimate that between 3,000 and 4,000 Rwandan army troops are on the ground in DR Congo – saying it based this on authenticated photographs, drone footage, video recordings, testimonies and intelligence.

Captured M23 fighters said that the Rwandans were known as the “Friendly Force”, with the experts’ December report saying the English term was “generically used” even when interviewees were speaking in other languages.

They said these Rwandan special forces were there to train and support the rebels, and they did not interact with M23 regulars.

Rwanda’s ally Uganda, unhappy about another rebel group in DR Congo that threatens its security, has also been accused of helping the M23 – with its officers also spotted at Tchanzu. The UN experts say Uganda has also supplied weapons, hosted rebel leaders and allowed cross-border movements of M23 fighters – accusations Kampala denies.

Kagame recently expressed his frustration that after Tshisekedi came to power in 2019, his suggestion that Rwanda work alongside the Congolese army to tackle the FDLR had been rebuffed – unlike a joint offensive by DR Congo and Uganda against the Islamist Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) rebels.

This may explain the re-emergence of the M23 in 2021 – with evidence showing Rwanda’s backing of the group continues to grow.

Clémentine de Montjoye, senior researcher in the Africa division at Human Rights Watch, told the BBC that geolocated images placed Rwandan troops in Sake, a town just outside Goma last week.

The UN experts say the M23’s decision to capture the mining town of Rubaya, which fell to its forces in May, was “motivated by a strategic need to monopolise” the lucrative trade in coltan, which is used to make batteries for electric vehicles and mobile phones.

Its December report says the group now collects at least $800,000 (£643,000) a month from the taxation of coltan in Rubaya – and ensures that around 120 tonnes of the coveted mineral is sent directly to Rwanda every four weeks.

It includes satellite images to show how a road was widened by September on the Congolese side of the Kibumba border crossing to allow access for heavy trucks that were previously unable to use the route into Rwanda.

Ms De Montjoye explained how the advanced weapons being used by the M23 were not available to any other of the numerous armed groups operating in eastern DR Congo.

“Earlier last year, we documented how Rwandan forces, and M23 had fired 122mm rockets, hitting displacement camps,” she told the BBC.

“It’s certainly with the kind of military support that the M23 has received that they’ve been able to make such an advance [on Goma].”

The UN experts have documented many such examples, including the use of Israeli-made anti-tank guided missiles.

Mr Moncrief said the M23 was also using technology to interfere with Global Positioning System (GPS) that had stopped the Congolese army from flying drones it had acquired from China.

The UN experts said the “spoofing and jamming” near areas controlled by M23 and the Rwandan army had also disrupted other aircraft.

President Kagame has dismissed these UN reports, pouring scorn on their “expertise” and saying they ignore many outrages committed in DR Congo to focus on “imaginary problems” created by the M23.

The East African Community – currently headed by Kenya’s president – is now trying to mediate, though Tshisekedi has said he will not attend a hastily organised emergency summit.

Observers say Rwanda’s president will be telling any mediator that the FDLR is the only subject up for discussion as he is adamant their presence makes DR Congo an unsafe neighbour – something he reiterated at a press conference earlier this month.

“Honestly, for the last 30 years if anyone wanted to understand what the problems are [in DR Congo] and what solutions should be, you don’t even need to be an expert,” Kagame said.