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Ruholamin Haqshanas
Author
Ruholamin Haqshanas
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Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has announced the suspension of his campaign, sparking a frenzy among Polymarket bettors.
A Polymarket wager on whether Kennedy would cease his presidential campaign by Friday has caused controversy as bettors are not sure whether it is resolved or not.
The specific wager, which has attracted over $300,000, stated that the market would resolve in the affirmative if he “officially announces his withdrawal” from the nail-biter November election.
Kennedy Confuses Polymarket Bettors
Polymarket traders had penciled in a 90% chance that Kennedy would drop out Friday shortly before he spoke in Arizona.
However, as he addressed his supporters, the odds took a nosedive to a mere 6% after his declaration that he would not completely abandon his presidential bid but would withdraw his candidacy from critical battleground states like Arizona.
“I’m not terminating my campaign, I’m simply suspending it,” he said.
“Our polling consistently showed by staying on the ballot in the battleground states, I would likely hand the election over to the Democrats, with whom I disagree on the most existential issues.”
Meanwhile, some traders referred to news articles for insights, which further increased the confusion due to conflicting reports from major news outlets.
For instance, one Fox News article that was shared said that Kennedy “dropped his White House bid,” while an article from Reuters said that Kennedy “abandoned his campaign on Friday.”
Notably, this is not the first time Polymarket bettors face controversial outcomes.
Earlier in the year, the platform faced a disputed $680,000 market related to LayerZero’s airdrop, which was eventually settled by UMA—a DeFi protocol that uses token-based voting to resolve disputes through what it describes as its “decentralized truth machine.”
Following Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s announcement, betting odds on Polymarket shifted in favor of former President Donald Trump.
Polymarket Under Scrutiny as Trading Volume Surges
Earlier this month, five United States Senators and three House representatives called for a ban on betting activities linked to the upcoming 2024 presidential election.
The bipartisan group consists of prominent figures such as Senators Jeff Merkley, Richard Blumenthal, Elizabeth Warren, and Representatives Jamie Raskin and John Sarbanes, among others.
In a letter addressed to Rostin Behnam, Chair of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the lawmakers highlighted the perilous influence these betting markets could exert on the electoral landscape.
The group expressed concerns over the possibility of billionaires leveraging large wagers to sway election outcomes, thereby eroding public trust in the democratic process.
“Political bets change the motivations behind each vote, replacing political convictions with financial calculations.”
Launched in 2020, Polymarket operates as a decentralized prediction market platform where users bet on the outcomes of real-world events using cryptocurrencies.
The platform uses the USDC stablecoin, allowing participants to buy and sell shares in forecasts related to the likelihood of future events.
Polymarket has recently achieved record-breaking trading volumes.
As interest in the US election grows, the platform reached $1 billion in monthly trading volume for the first time, with $343 million recorded in July alone.
