Can India help its special ally Bangladesh defuse the crisis?

The dramatic resignation of Bangladesh’s long-serving prime minister Sheikh Hasina and her flight to India ironically underscore the close ties between the two countries.

Ms Hasina ruled Bangladesh, a nation of 170 million, for close to 15 years until a protest by students to abolish civil service quotas snowballed into a broader and violent anti-government movement. At least 280 people have died in clashes between police and anti-government protesters so far.

Back in June, Ms Hasina visited India twice in two weeks.

Her first visit was to attend Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s oath-taking ceremony. After that, she made a two-day state visit, the first by a head of government to India after Mr Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party-led coalition’s third consecutive victory in parliamentary elections.

“We have met 10 times in the last one year. However, this meeting is special because Sheikh Hasina is the first state guest after the third term of our government,” Mr Modi said at a joint news conference.

The bonhomie was unmistakable. “Bangladesh greatly values its relations with India,” said Ms Hasina. “Come to Bangladesh to witness what all we have done and plan to do”.

India has a special relationship with Bangladesh. The neighbours share a 4,096km (2,545 miles)-border and linguistic, economic and cultural ties. Bangladesh, formerly East Pakistan, was born after a war in 1971 with West Pakistan (now Pakistan), with India supporting Bengali nationalists. Bilateral trade between the two countries is around $16bn (£12bn), with India being Bangladesh’s top export destination in Asia.

To be sure, the ties are not perfect: differences arise over Bangladesh’s close relationship with China, border security, migration issues and some Bangladeshi officials’ discomfort with Mr Modi’s Hindu nationalist politics.

After Ms Hasina’s resignation, Bangladesh’s army chief Waker-uz-Zaman has announced plans for an interim government. He will meet President Mohammed Shahabuddin and reports say he’s hoping for a solution by the day’s end after speaking with opposition parties, led by the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP). Leadership of the interim government remains unclear.

So far, India has only described the violent protests as an “internal matter” of Bangladesh. Can it say – and do – more about the unfolding developments?

“NOTHING. Nothing for now,” wrote Happymon Jacob, an Indian foreign policy expert, on X (formerly Twitter) on what India should be doing.

“It is still unfolding. And, it’s not about India; it’s about politics in Bangladesh. Let them figure it out.”

Michael Kugelman of the Wilson Center, an American think-tank, believes Ms Hasina’s resignation and flight are “close to a worst-case scenario for India, as it has long viewed any alternative to Ms Hasina and her party as a threat to Indian interests”.

Mr Kugelman told the BBC that Delhi will likely reach out to Bangladesh’s military to convey its concerns and hope its interests are taken into account in an interim government.

“Beyond that, India will have to watch and wait nervously. It may support free and fair elections in the interest of stability, but it doesn’t want the BNP – even if it has grown weak and divided – to return. Delhi likely wouldn’t oppose a long period of interim rule for that reason.”

Ms Hasina’s sudden downfall would have caught her allies off guard.

The daughter of Bangladesh’s founding president and the world’s longest-serving female head of government, Ms Hasina led her country for nearly 15 years. She had overseen one of the world’s fastest-growing economies and a major boost in living standards in South Asia.

But her rule had also been marked by accusations of forced disappearances, extrajudicial killings and repression of the opposition. She and her party Awami League denied these charges, while her government blamed opposition parties for fuelling protests.

In January, Ms Hasina won her fourth consecutive term in a controversial election. The opposition BNP boycotted the vote, and allegations of a rigged poll were compounded by mass arrests of its leaders and supporters.

Some of the anti-India sentiment in Bangladesh stems from India’s support for Ms Hasina’s government, which critics view as interference in domestic politics. Historical grievances and accusations of overreach also contribute to some of the negative perception.

Ali Riaz, a Bangladeshi-American political scientist at Illinois State University, told the BBC that India’s silence is “not surprising as it has been the principal backer of the Hasina government for the past 14 years and practically contributed to the erosion of democracy in Bangladesh”.

“The unqualified support to Sheikh Hasina has acted as a bulwark against any pressure on her for human rights transgressions. India has benefitted economically and seen Ms Hasina as the only way to keep the country within India’s sphere of influence.”

India sees the current Bangladeshi opposition and its allies as “dangerous Islamic forces”. Ms Hasina cracked down on anti-India militants on her soil and granted transit rights to secure trade routes to five Indian states which border Bangladesh.

“A peaceful, stable and prosperous Bangladesh is in India’s interests. India should do everything to ensure that those conditions are maintained. Essentially you want to keep peace and calm,” Harsh Vardhan Shringla, a former Indian foreign secretary and high commissioner to Bangladesh, told the BBC, hours before Ms Hasina resigned.

For the moment, the situation is uncertain. “India doesn’t have too many options at this point in time,” a senior diplomat told the BBC. “We have to tighten control on our borders. Anything else would be construed as interference”.

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