When Iran attacked Israel in April, it seemed like it was making a point – but Iran effectively gave notice of the attack in terms of how it carried it out, and everything was pretty much shot out of the air by Israeli and American defences.
This time around it’s different. The Iranians looked like they wanted to do some serious damage and were making a much more aggressive point.
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps put out an announcement saying that they were retaliating to the killings of senior leaders in Hamas and Hezbollah, and warned that if Israel retaliated, in turn they would strike back.
Last time around, Joe Biden said to Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu – “Take the win”, don’t carry out a big response – and they didn’t. This time around in Israel the mood is very different.
Look at the tweet from former prime minister Naftali Bennett last night, using very strong language, saying: “This is the greatest opportunity in 50 years to change the face of the Middle East.” He was arguing that Israel should go after Iran’s nuclear facilities, in order to “fatally cripple this terrorist regime”.
Now he’s not prime minister (although he is widely tipped to be a future one, so he was making a point to show he is tough) but it does reflect a certain mood in the country.
I would not rule out attacks by Israel on anything at the moment – nuclear sites, petrochemical facilities, anything that could cause damage to the Iranian economy.
The scenario always was that Iran had a forward defence in the shape of Hezbollah in Lebanon, with a massive arsenal of sophisticated weapons, to be used, in theory, if Iran and its nuclear facilities were attacked.
But in the last couple of weeks, Israel has decapitated the Hezbollah organisation, destroyed half of its weapons, according to American and Israeli authorities; and invaded Lebanon.
The deterrent Iran had, you could argue, is not just gone – it’s smashed into a thousand pieces. So I think the Israelis are feeling more free to act. And Joe Biden is moving another carrier battle group to the Mediterranean, signalling to the Iranians that if you hit Israel, you hit the US too.
This is why people were talking about the fear of the war spreading: the instability, the turbulence that comes from everything that’s been happening – now we are seeing it play out and it leaves very little room for diplomacy at this moment.
