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Bitcoin (BTC) pushed back to the north of the $60,000 level on Wednesday, with traders eyeing a major BTC breakout back towards $70,000 as macro tailwinds come in.
The minutes of last month’s Fed meeting were dovish, with most policymakers supporting interest rate cuts starting next month.
That all but confirmed what everyone already new – rate cuts are coming.
Indeed, fed funds futures markets currently imply a more than 70% likelihood that the Fed will have lowered interest by at least 100bps by this time next year, per CME data.
While the dovish Fed meeting minutes weren’t a surprise to the market, they are still acting as a tailwind.
That because an easing of global liquidity conditions (i.e. lower interest rates resulting in more money being created) is generally associated with a rising Bitcoin price.
As Thursday’s US PMI data and Friday’s speech from Fed Chair Jerome Powell near, the risks of a BTC breakout are growing.
BTC Breaking Incoming? Here’s Why a Retest of $70K Could Be Incoming
Assuming economic data doesn’t show the US economy tipping into a recession, but the Fed remains on course to lower interest rates, marco is set to remain a tailwind for Bitcoin.
Politics may also be acting as a tailwind on Wednesday.
Per Polymarket, pro-crypto Republican Presidential nominee Donald Trump is once again the favorite to win the November election.
Amid fears that his main rival Democrat nominee and sitting VP Kamala Harris might continue the Biden administration’s anti-crypto policies, a growing likelihood of a Trump win is likely to support Bitcoin.
See More: Kamala Harris Reportedly Considering Gary Gensler for Treasury Secretary if Elected
Technicals also suggest a growing chance of a bullish BTC breakout.
Bitcoin has formed a pennant structure in recent weeks.
The price has been capped by resistance in the form of the 50DMA, last at $61,300.
A breakout above here, and above the 200DMA near $63,000, could kickstart a rally back to recent highs at $70,000.
Short-term traders might be able to make some profits, but this wouldn’t be a major BTC breakout.
A retest of $70,000 would only see Bitcoin returning towards the top of its multi-month range.
Catalysts later in the year, such as ongoing Fed rate cuts and a possible Trump election victory, could trigger a rise towards $100,000.
Disclaimer: Crypto is a high-risk asset class. This article is provided for informational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. You could lose all of your capital.
